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Industrial confidence indicator in May 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in May 2020

Last update: 28.05.2020
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Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.05.2020


In May, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 13,6 p.p. to the value -28,7. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the increase of the expected production over the next three months.

In May compared with April, the industrial production trend decreased by 2 p.p. to -77. A decrease was recorded mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment, basic metal and fabricated metal products and wood and paper products. On the contrary, an increase of the industrial production was reported mainly by the respondents in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. The balance of the aggregate orders increased by 1 p.p. to -69. An increase of orders (weighted by production) was recorded more considerably only in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. A decrease of orders was mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, food and electrical equipment. The majority of respondents (80 %) consider the current level of orders to be sufficient. The balance of foreign orders increased by 10 p.p. to -58, compared with April. An increase of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. On the contrary, a decrease of foreign orders was stated mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, electrical equipment and in the chemical industry. The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient reached only 28 %. In May, the balance of the finished goods stock increased by 10 p.p. to 4. An increase of the stock of goods is expected mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of textiles and apparel. A decrease of the stock was reported mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and in other manufacture, repair and installations. The majority of respondents (65 %) consider the stock to be sufficient. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, increased by 50 p.p. to -13. An increase of the production is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, transport equipment and other non-metallic products; by size groups, in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions, in Nitra and Trnava. In May, the balance of the expected development of prices of industrial products increased by 2 p.p. to -11. A price drop is assumed mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, basic metal and fabricated metal products and wood and paper products. A price increase is estimated mainly in the chemical industry and in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. In May compared with April, the situation in the balance of the employment  decreased by 3 p.p. to -30. A decrease of the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products. On the contrary, an increase of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and in the chemical industry; by regions, in Banská Bystrica, Trnava and Trenčín. 63 % of respondents expect a stabilization of employment.

Respondents were contacted after the 1st phase of the release of measures to combat the spread of coronavirus, and during the data collection, the 2nd and 3rd phases of the release of measures were announced (on 6 May 2020). The previous survey in April took place before the announcement of the first phase of the release of measures on 22 April 2020.


Note: *In May 2020, 479 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry.
The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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