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Economic sentiment indicator in November 2018

Economic sentiment indicator in November 2018

Last update: 28.02.2019
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Makroekonomické štatistiky
Domain: Konjunkturálne prieskumy a spotrebiteľské názory
Publish Date: 28.11.2018

In November compared with the last month´s value, the three-month moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI)1)2) decreased by 0,6 points to the lowest level (97,4) since May 2014, mainly due to a decreased confidence in services and partly also in trade. Currently the ESI has been declining for the seventh month in a row, it is lagging behind the value of the long-term average by 6,4 points and behind the value of the corresponding period last year by 7,8 points.

In November, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 2,4 percentage points (p. p.) to 1,7. The development of the indicator was favourably influenced by the increase of the expected production over the next three months and the increase of order books. In November compared with the previous month, the confidence indicator in construction increased by 3 points to -7,0 as a result of more favourable evaluations of the expected employment. The current result is exceeding the long-term average by 18 points. In November compared with October, confidence indicator in trade decreased by 0,7 percentage points to 18,3 as a result of negative evaluations of the current business activities. In November, the confidence indicator in services did not confirm the optimism of the survey conducted in October, and it decreased again, its value (-11,3) decreased by 11 percentage points compared with the last month´s survey. The indicator´s development was affected by unfavourable evaluations of all its three components.

Since May 2018, the consumer mood in Slovakia is relatively stabilized. In November compared with the previous month, the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence indicator increased by 0,3 points and reached the level -3,2, mainly due to more favourable opinions on the expected development of unemployment. Respondents were more optimistic by 0,8 points than in the corresponding period last year and the current result exceeded the long-term average.


Note: 1) Three-month moving average,  in the January 2018 the data were re-calculated to the new basis (average 2015 = 100)
2) In May 2015, the three-month moving average was revised after seasonal adjustment of the consumer confidence indicator (from April 1999)

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