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Trade confidence indicator in September 2021
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Trade confidence indicator in September 2021

Last update: 29.09.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.09.2021

 

In September 2021, confidence indicator in trade changed only very slightly and decreased to the level 25,7 (drop by 1,6 p.p.). Respondents consider the current situation as favourable due to the expected stricter measures related to the forthcoming wave of the pandemic they are still cautious in assessing the future development.

Respondents' opinions on the trend of business activities over the past three months have remained almost unchanged. After seasonal adjustment, the balance (41) remained unchanged compared with August. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) predominate mainly in retail sale of other goods in specialized stores and in retail sale of household goods. Positive trends prevail in enterprises with 20 to 49 people, in the regions of Trnava and Košice. Up to 93 % of respondents assess the level of the goods stock (-1) to be normal to the season.

The level of evaluation of the requirements for suppliers, dropped to 37 after seasonal adjustment (a decrease by 10 p.p.). The decrease in the balance is mainly influenced by the opinions of respondents from retail sale of fuels, who do not consider increasing the requirements for suppliers. Entrepreneurs in the retail sector with ICT equipment in specialized stores anticipate higher requirements for suppliers. Pessimism in the evaluation of requirements for suppliers was also reflected in enterprises with 100 or more employees and by regions, especially in the regions of Bratislava and Nitra.

Expectations of business activities over the next three months remained almost unchanged. Respondents are still waiting how the situation with the further wave of the pandemic will develop and they are cautious in assessing future developments also due to higher prices of raw material and energy, which may be reflected in commodity prices. The seasonally adjusted balance (35) is lower by 2 p.p. The majority of respondents (49 %) expect an increase in business activities, 44 % of respondents expect a stable situation. Higher expectations are assumed by respondents in retail sale of goods for culture and recreation in specialized stores and traders from Prešov region.

Opinions on employment remained optimistic. The seasonally adjusted balance (17) increased by 5 p.p. Growth in the number of employees is expected by enterprises in retail sale of other household goods in specialized stores, enterprises with 100 and more employees and in the region of Banská Bystrica.

Evaluation trend of the expected development of prices persists compared to August, respondents expect a slight decline in commodity prices. The seasonally adjusted balance (28) decreased by 3 p.p. The decline in the prices of goods is the most significant in retail sale of automotive fuel, while the increase in the prices of goods is expected in retail sale of goods for culture and recreation in specialized stores. The decline in commodity prices is expected in companies with 20 to 49 employees, and in the Nitra region.


Note: * In September 2021 351 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way.
Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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