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Industrial confidence indicator in February 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in February 2020

Last update: 27.02.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 27.02.2020

In February, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 3 p.p. to the value -1,3. The development of the indicator was unfavourably influenced mainly by the decrease of the expected production over the next three months and the stock of goods.

In February, the industrial production trend increased by 32 p.p. to 9, representing the highest level since May 2019. An increase was recorded mainly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. and other non-metallic products and transport equipment. On the contrary, a decrease of the industrial production was reported mainly by respondents in other manufacture, repair and installations and in manufacture of food. The business balance of the aggregate orders decreased by 3 p.p. to -16. A decrease of orders (weighted by production) was recorded mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products and transport equipment. An increase of orders was mainly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. and in the chemical industry. The majority of respondents (84 %) consider the current level of orders to be sufficient. Compared with January, the balance of foreign orders increased by 1 p.p. to -14. An increase of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., electrical equipment and in the chemical industry. On the contrary, a decrease of foreign orders was mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel and in other manufacture, repair and installations. The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient reached 78 %. In February, the balance of the finished goods stock decreased by 2 p.p. to 2. A decrease of the stock of goods was reported mainly in manufacture of transport equipment and food. An increase of the goods stock was reported mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and in electrical equipment. The majority of respondents (96 %) consider the stock to be sufficient. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, decreased by 8 p.p. to 14. A decrease of the production is expected mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and textiles and apparel. An increase of the production is estimated mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of other non-metallic products, by size groups in enterprises employing 500 to 999 people and by regions in Trnava and Trenčín. In February, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices, increased by 10 p.p. to -6. A price increase is expected mainly in manufacture of transport equipment and in the chemical industry. A price decrease is assumed mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and pharmaceutical products. In February compared with January, the balance of the employment increased by 5 p.p. to -2. A higher number of employees is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other non-metallic products, basic metal and fabricated metal products and electrical equipment, by size groups in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions in Banská Bystrica and Trnava. On the contrary, a decrease of the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and textiles and apparel, by regions only in Košice. 78 % of respondents expect a stabilization of employment.


Note: *In February 2020, 538 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry.
The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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