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Trade confidence indicator in August 2021
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Trade confidence indicator in August 2021

Last update: 30.08.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 30.08.2021



In August 2021, confidence indicator in trade was moderated only very slightly and it increased to the value 27,3 (growth by 1 p.p.). Respondents assess the current situation as sufficient due to the loosening of the anti-Covid measures but at the same time they are still cautious in assessing the future development.

In August, respondents' opinions on the trend of business activities over the last three months have shifted from positive to neutral evaluations, as 51 % of respondents described it as growing (44 % of respondents described the current situation as neutral).  After seasonal adjustment, the balance (41) decreased by 4 p.p. compared to July. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) predominate mainly in retail sale of other goods in specialized stores and in retail sale of automotive fuel.  Positive trends prevail in enterprises with 20 to 49 employees, in the regions of Trnava and Žilina. Up to 93 % of respondents assess the  level of the goods stock (-4) to be normal to the season.

The assessment level of the requirements for suppliers, continued to grow, after seasonal adjustment it achieved the value 47 (growth by 9 p.p.). Increased requirements for suppliers are expected especially by respondents in retail trade of automotive fuels and other goods in specialized stores. Optimism in the evaluation of requirements for suppliers was also reflected in enterprises with 100 or more employees and from regions, especially in Bratislava and Nitra.

The expectations of the business activities over the next three months are increasing only very cautiously. Respondents are still waiting how the situation with the next wave of the pandemic will develop and they are cautious in assessing future developments also due to higher prices of raw materials, which may be reflected in commodity prices. The seasonally adjusted balance (37) is higher by 3 p.p. The majority of respondents (51 %) expect an increase in business activities, 44 % of respondents expect a stable situation. Higher expectations are expected by respondents in retail trade of other goods in specialized stores and traders from the Bratislava region.

The opinions in the field of employment are slightly more optimistic. The share of enterprises expecting an employment growth (23 %) increased by 2 p.p. The seasonally adjusted balance increased to 12. Growth in the number of employees is expected by enterprises in non-specialized stores, in enterprises with 100 and more people and in the region of Bratislava.

The assessment of the expected development of prices has changed again compared to the previous month, but in the opposite direction, thus respondents are more pessimistic in their opinion on the growth of commodity prices. The seasonally adjusted balance (31) decreased by 10 p.p. Higher price growth than in July is expected mainly by respondents in the retail sale of cultural and recreation goods in specialized stores, in enterprises with 50 to 99 employees, and in the region of Prešov.


Note: * In August 2021 345 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade.
The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way.
Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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