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Economic sentiment indicator in May 2020

Economic sentiment indicator in May 2020

Last update: 28.05.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.05.2020


In May compared with the value of the previous month, the seasonally adjusted three-months moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) decreased by 11,6 points to 72,2 which represents the lowest recorded value of the indicator except May 2009. The confidence increased mainly in industry, little less among consumers and in trade. On the contrary, it decreased in services and in construction. ESI is currently lagging behind the long-term average by 31,1 points and behind the value of the corresponding period last year by 23 points.

In May, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 13,6 percentage points  (p. p.) to the value -28,7. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the increase of the expected production over the next three months. In May,  the confidence indicator in construction decreased by 2,5 points to -47 due to less favourable evaluations of the overall level of orders. The current result is below the long-term average by 23 points.

In May compared with April, confidence indicator in trade increased by 2,3  percentage points to -1,0 as a result of positive evaluations of the expected business situations. In May, the confidence indicator in services continued to follow a downward trend, its value (-52,3) was lower by 3 p. p., compared with April. The indicator´s development was affected by negative evaluations of the business situation and the demand over the last three months, while the expected demand was evaluated positively by respondents.

At the beginning of May, after the last month´s fall, the consumer mood in Slovakia was more optimistic than a month ago. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, increased month-on-month by 3,8 points to -38,1. Respondents were more optimistic in three indicator components, mainly in the expectations of the financial situation of households and the general economic situation, less in the expectations of the saving perspectives of households. Their expectations of the unemployment development basically didn´t change. Compared with the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 31,5 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 19,1 points.

Respondents were contacted after the 1st phase of the release of measures to combat the spread of coronavirus, and during the data collection, the 2nd and 3rd phases of the release of measures were announced (on 6 May 2020). The previous survey in April took place before the announcement of the first phase of the release of measures on 22 April 2020.

Note: The values of the confidence indicator range from -100 (responses of all respondents are maximally pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are maximally optimistic). Data are seasonally adjusted.

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